关键词: 技术成熟度, 技术成熟度等级评价, 文献统计方法, 逻辑回归, 多芯片模块

Abstract: In the evaluation process of technology maturity，the common problems of existing TRL evaluation method，TRIZ theory based evaluation and the performance prediction methodare lacking of valid data and the imprecision of evaluation results.A method based on literature statistical was proposed in this paper to explore the technology maturity and implementation process.Meanwhile the construction method of technical indicators was studied combined with logistic regression technique to build technological development model in order to ensure the validity and accuracy of data fitting results.For three chip assembly technologies called 2D-MCM （Two dimensional Multi-Chip Module），3D-MCM （Three dimensional Multi-Chip Module）and SIP（System-in-Package），the application research of methods was proposed. The results indicate that the chip assembly technology evaluation consequence based on statistical method is consistent with the actual situation and the feasibility of the proposed method of the article is verified.

Key words: technology maturity, TRL evaluation, literature statistical method, logistic regression, chip assembly